Issue №3, Vol. 23
Kholoptsev A., Shubkin R., Proskova N. Factors affecting forest fire risk in certain regions of Siberia between 2010 and 2024 // Resources and Technology. 2026. №3, Vol. 23. P. 69‒93.
DOI: 10.15393/j2.art.2026.9343
Factors affecting forest fire risk in certain regions of Siberia between 2010 and 2024
| Kholoptsev Alexander Vadimovich | The Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy of the State FireProtection Service of EMERCOM of Russia,, kholoptsev@mail.ru |
| Shubkin Roman Gennadevich | The Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy of the State FireProtection Service of EMERCOM of Russia, rshubkin@yandex.ru |
| Proskova Natalia Yurievna | The Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy of the State FireProtection Service of EMERCOM of Russia, tunatashka@mail.ru |
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Key words: forest fires; long-term forecasting; monthly precipitation amounts |
Summary: The justifiability of long-term forecasts of fire hazard indicators based on weather conditions for forest-covered areas of Siberia is an urgent problem of forest pyrology and fire safety in forests. The authors propose a methodology for predicting the studied processes for areas of the earth's surface, where the factors considered in predictive models are significantly related to these processes, outstripping them by the time equal to the advance of the forecast, and providing that the scenarios of their development do not change in the future. A necessary condition for the applicability of the methodology is also the invariance or strengthening in the past of the links between the studied process and the factors considered in forecasting. The purpose of this article is to test the hypothesis that in the period 2001—2024 such factors of the process as variations in forest burning rates in the territories of some regions of Siberia in previous years possessed these properties. The validity of the hypothesis has been tested for various parts of Siberia and for all months of the fire season. Correlation analysis was used as a research method. It has been established that there are areas of Siberia for which the relationship of the studied process for the months from March to June, with changes in forest burning rates in the territories of Yakutia, the Krasnoyarsk Territory or the Irkutsk region over the previous fire seasons, for 2010—2024 were significant, and intensified over the period 2000—2024. Therefore, long-term forecasting of monthly precipitation amounts using the mentioned methodology is possible for the identified areas. In some of these sites, changes in the characteristics under consideration and indicators of forest burning in the respective regions are regulated by positive feedback, which may contribute to an increase in fire risk. |
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